A recent post on Truth Social by President Donald Trump has initiated the first steps towards the creation of a strategic bitcoin (BTC) reserve for the United States. However, traders on Polymarket are doubtful that this will happen within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency.
According to Polymarket, there is currently a 23% chance that a BTC reserve will be established by April 30th, 2025. The contract stipulates that the U.S. government must specifically hold bitcoin, not from confiscation, by 11:59 PM ET on April 29th for the resolution to be positive. Announcements alone do not count.
Following Trump’s announcement, the likelihood of a reserve being created increased from 11% to 23%. Another contract on Polymarket, which asks if a reserve will be established by the end of 2025, currently has a 65% chance of resolving positively.
Initially, Trump’s social media post only mentioned XRP and SOL as components of the reserve, causing their values to surge. However, he later clarified that BTC and ETH would also be included.
One of the most successful traders in the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, who seems to be associated with a French trader. Theo5 has earned a profit of $40,000 on their no position.
On the other hand, a trader known as Polywog lost $73,000 on their yes position and over $560,000 by incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election.
