Home Price Rally: Melbourne and Hobart Markets Take the Lead in Impressive Financial Surge

The rise in home values was evident across all capital cities and regional areas, except for Darwin and regional Victoria. According to CoreLogic, growth markets like Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide experienced more modest monthly increases of 0.2% to 0.3%, with Perth’s growth slowing to just 0.3% over the rolling quarter.

In contrast, Sydney and Melbourne are seeing renewed momentum, especially in the upper quartile housing sector, which had previously faced significant declines. CoreLogic’s research highlights that the premium markets in these cities are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. The resurgence of high-end housing aligns with buyers’ expectations of upcoming rate cuts, driving increased interest and activity.

Melbourne and Hobart recorded the strongest gains in February, with a 0.4% increase in home values. Melbourne’s values reversed a 10-month streak of decline. Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director, attributed this market improvement to rising buyer sentiment rather than an immediate increase in borrowing capacity. He stated that expectations of lower interest rates, which solidified in February, are flowing through to improved buyer sentiment.

CoreLogic also observed a slowdown in new home listings, coupled with improved buyer sentiment due to expectations of lower interest rates. This has led to upward price pressure and contributed to price stability in key markets. Lawless noted that although total advertised supply levels are slightly higher compared to a year ago, listings remain below the previous five-year average. The reduced flow of fresh stock to the market could be supporting upward pressure on prices, especially with more active buyers amid higher sentiment and lower rates.

Historically, Sydney and Melbourne’s premium housing markets have been the first to respond to interest rate cuts. Lawless mentioned that while borrowing capacity has not yet significantly increased, rising confidence in lower rates is fueling demand in high-value markets. Sydney and Melbourne’s premium segments were among the hardest hit during the downturn, making them prime candidates for a strong recovery.

Financial markets anticipate multiple interest rate cuts, which could further enhance borrowing capacity and fuel growth in premium housing markets. However, CoreLogic indicated that even with rate reductions, borrowing costs will remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, potentially moderating the pace of recovery.

Despite improving demand conditions, CoreLogic noted that slowing population growth may offset some momentum. Migration trends may also play a role in Melbourne’s market recovery as population movement stabilizes. A sustained lift in confidence, driven by lower interest rates, could accelerate housing demand. However, net overseas migration, which peaked in early 2023, is expected to decline further, potentially reducing rental and housing demand in the medium term.

Additionally, CoreLogic’s data shows that housing supply remains constrained. While Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing a buyer’s market with increased inventory levels, shortages persist in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane. New housing construction, particularly in multi-unit developments, remains low due to feasibility challenges and high construction costs.